|
Financial Services Regulation Overhauled
Staycations Catching On
Technology Experts Argue that Too Much Regulation Hurts
Innovation
The Cold
Hard Truth About Home Ownership
A
Nation of Renters?
Financial
Services Regulation Overhauled
Badly
needed, but will it work?
The American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance applauded
Congress and President Obama for
passing and signing comprehensive financial services reform
legislation in July. The new law gives the government more
power and more tools to prevent many types of financial
services firms from causing another economic meltdown. While
the legislation is imperfect in the view of most proponents
and opponents, until now no restrictions have been put in
place to prevent a repeat of the misjudgments that could
have caused another Great Depression. That alone is an
improvement over relying on the memory spans of the small
number of senior corporate leaders whose decisions caused
the meltdown to prevent its recurrence.
Ten regulatory agencies will be given wide discretion to
write hundreds of new rules governing finance based on the
guidelines set out in the legislation. For that reason the
effectiveness of the bill will be far more dependent on the
regulatory process and ultimately on case-by-case decisions
by regulators. Consumer groups fear that this could lead to
a repeat of the same industry regulatory capture that lead a
number of regulatory agencies ignoring their oversight
responsibilities prior the recent meltdown. For their part,
financial sector firms fear the opposite – arbitrary and
overly restrictive rules that could hurt their stockholders
and the economy. A council of regulators has been created to
monitor economic risks, and a new Bureau of Consumer
Financial Protection was created to police financial
products. The 2,300 page bill also sets stricter standards
for derivatives trading.
Several contentious issues were not addressed in the bill.
These include the future of government sponsored enterprises
such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which play a critical
role in mortgage finance and have lost billions of dollars.
Congress may address this issue next year. In the interest
of passing the bill, also taken off the table were new
regulations of auto loans by car dealers.
The effectiveness of this landmark legislation in many areas
will depend on the process of developing implementing
regulations, where the outcomes can range from strong and
effective new rules to unintended consequences, and/or
ineffective regulations.
Based on the history of major reforms, we will probably see
some of all three. The legislation will also be revisited
many times both to address loopholes and overkill. Both lie
in the eyes of the beholders and will be subject to public
opinion regarding financial services sector practices after
the regulations have been implemented. Nevertheless there is
today less likelihood of a future financial services
meltdown than there was yesterday. For that we should be
grateful, and thank the sausage makers for all the time and
effort they put into the process.
top
Staycations
Catching On
The economy
leaves many with no other choices, but there are
other reasons too.
Staycations have become a popular option for more
homeowners, in many cases because they cannot afford
the luxury vacation of years past. Staycations refer
to local (or fairly local) vacations, including
spending the vacation at home. The time can be
devoted to local sites you’ve always wanted to see
(or just found out about), new hobbies or other
activities, or projects around the home that have
been stuck on your to do list for years. Staycations
are often fairly brief, also due to economic
considerations. In some cases other factors are also
involved – some homeowners want to lighten their
carbon footprint, or they are sick and tired of the
hassles of airline travel today. In an era when
airline service has become an oxymoron and baggage
charges can exceed the airline ticket price, who can
blame them?
Some staycations might better be described as mini
vacations. Well situated destinations are benefiting
from the trend. While many giant luxury cruise ships
are leaving port with many empty rooms, smaller
vessels are doing fine. John Gibson, owner of
Downriver Canoe Company (http://www.downriver.com/)
not far from Washington, DC, said he’s experiencing
the best year of the company’s 30 year history. Many
customers have told him that a whitewater canoe,
tube or raft trip down the Shenandoah River is a
great alternative that is much easier on the wallet
than their past summer vacations.
Some homeowners can still afford the two week trip
to Europe, but instead are repurposing vacation
budgets to remodeling projects that can help rebuild
lost equity in their home. The money saved from such
a vacation can translate into a nice deck or outdoor
kitchen, both perfect places to spend part of their
staycation. According to Arizona Tile Company,
“Favorite retreats or leisure spots outside of the
home are mimicked inside the home property (indoor
and outdoor) to create a vacation or leisure-like
setting, in order to create a “staycation”
environment. People are using their set-aside
vacation budgets for home remodeling as
staying-at-home for vacations has become more
common.” In addition to adding equity the homeowners
benefit from long term enjoyment of the improvement
or increased marketability of their home if a sale
is in their future.
Simply Google “staycation” and you’ll learn how
popular they’ve become (1,340,000 results for
staycation ideas). They cover everything from
planning your staycation to lists of possible
staycation ideas. It quickly became apparent that a
staycation can be every bit as exhausting as a
vacation if you’re willing to put the work into it.
The number of staycation ideas and suggestions is
almost endless. It’s worth a few minutes toreview
several of the lists. You’re almost certain to see a
couple of great ideas that never occurred to you,
and are worth doing, whether your economic
circumstance limits your choices or not. One of the
longer lists is at
http://www.supereco.com/news/2009/05/07/how-to-plan-a-staycation/
It also has embedded links for more information on
each of its 37 suggestions.
top
Technology
Experts Argue that Too Much Regulation Hurts
Innovation
While many policymakers are recognizing the threat,
backsliding continues.
There have been relatively few bright spots in the
American economy in recent years. From the
perspective of American homeowners, one of them has
been the continuing evolution of new information and
communications technology tools that have made their
personal and business lives significantly better and
more productive.
Along with this progress there have been numerous
and contentious debates over whether additional
regulation of that sector is needed, and if so what
form it should take. In recent months a more
collaborative approach has begun to emerge.
Legislators, regulators, and consumer groups with
diverse philosophies, and corporations with
competing business objectives have begun to cut back
on rhetoric in favor of more productive dialogue to
seek mutually acceptable solutions to policy
challenges in this area. As an organization whose
members are predominantly pragmatists and moderates,
the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance is
delighted with this development.
As reported in the June issue of Home Base, Congress
and the Federal Communications Commission have
initiated collaborative discussions on the best way
to repurpose the Universal Service Fund (USF) to
promote broadband build-out and affordability. The
USF was originally focused on insuring that all
consumers had access to wireline telephone service,
but it is clear consumers are rapidly abandoning
that earlier technology in favor of wireless
service, which today can also provide increasingly
sophisticated Internet access. The Federal
Communications Commission's Wireline Competition
Bureau hosted June discussions with key stakeholders
with opposing perspectives to try to narrow
differences. Congress has also begun hearings on how
to modify the USF, and will provide the FCC needed
direction and authority in that area.
In the House of Representatives, Internet
Subcommittee Chairman Rick Boucher (D-VA.) and
Ranking Member Cliff Stearns (R-FL) are also meeting
with stakeholders with diverse perspectives to
develop a new framework for broadband Internet
service regulation. That effort is necessary in
light of a recent court decision that casts
questions regarding the FCC’s current scope of
authority in that area. The FCC also hosted a June
meeting with key business stakeholders to explore
the possibility of developing a consensus approach
regarding “network neutrality,” the principle that
consumers are entitled to unrestricted access to
Internet information, including products and
services. It would have been better if those
discussions had preceded the FCC’s announcement of a
regulatory regime to achieve those goals, but late
is better than never. In July, Rep. John D. Dingell
(D-Mich.) indirectly lent his support to a more
collaborative approach when he asked the FCC
chairman to drop his current push to re-regulate
broadband lines.
In the face of dramatic growth in mobile spectrum
consumption, we will soon run out of available
spectrum suitable for mobile applications unless the
inventory is expanded. The FCC is also working with
TV stations to encourage them to allow the
government to auction some of their unused spectrum
that is suitable for mobile applications, in
exchange for a share of the auction proceeds.
“We don’t believe that these more collaborative
efforts will resolve all the differences on every
issue,” observed American Homeowners Grassroots
Alliance President Bruce Hahn. “What they will
hopefully do is reduce the scope of differences,
improving the chances of a successful outcome. By
removing much of the uncertainty regarding the final
resolution, the policy debate is likely to have less
of an impact on the continued flow of new
technologies and tools.
The importance of more certainty in technology
policy was underscored by a panel of financial
experts speaking at a July seminar sponsored by the
New York Law School. Telecom analysts and
consultants observed that the FCC’s consideration of
network neutrality and broadband regulation
reclassification is creating uncertainty in the
minds of telecom sector investors. With such
investments subject to higher risk because of the
rapid development of new technologies and/or
requiring many years to recover, the introduction of
external policy factors that could add more risk
could also undermine investment. That in turn could
slow the process of innovation and access to these
services by the unserved or the underserved.
The importance of minimizing uncertainty applies to
all the various policy debates in the technology
sector. Unfortunately, there continue to be
unilateral regulatory initiatives in this area that
that could hurt consumers and slow the evolution of
new technology. One example was the June
introduction of federal legislation to require all
homeowners and other consumers to pay sales taxes on
all of their Internet purchases.
The legislation was introduced at the request of the
National Association of Real Estate Investment
Trusts (NAREIT), which represents owners of shopping
malls. Internet Commerce is growing rapidly as
consumers grow to appreciate not only the time
saving and selection it offers, but also saving
drives to the mall, auto expenses and air pollution,
traffic hassles, and the difficulty of finding a
convenient parking spot in the mall parking lot in
the middle of a hot August day. Consumers are also
increasingly having their garage sales on the
Internet, which explains why 85% of consumers oppose
sales taxes on Internet purchases. Hopefully the
bill’s sponsor, Representative William Delahunt (D –
MA 10) and NAREIT will both will take a cue from
other players in the technology sector, and initiate
a dialogue with consumer groups and others on the
other side of the issue to explore alternative
solutions to the decline of shopping malls.
top
The
Cold Hard Truth About Home Ownership
We hear good news, we hear bad news, but the underlying
data is scary.
Many homeowners are increasingly suffering from “factoid
frustration” as a result of the alternating good news - bad
news media stories about the housing market. A recent
article by John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate
Consulting (www.realestateconsulting.com), offered some
sobering analysis as well as a thoughtful report card on the
current state of economic growth, affordability, the home
market and other factors. Mr. Burns’ article is reprinted
below. current
62% Homeownership on the Horizon
Our recent experiences in D.C. confirm that homeownership
is clearly a value that is promoted by most politicians.
They are in for a rude awakening, however, and a legacy that
they will not be proud of.
8 million homeowners are currently not paying their
mortgage, and we believe 6 million of them will lose their
home to the bank in the next 2 years. This will reduce the
homeownership rate to 62%, as follows:
According to a recent study, another 5% of all households
which roughly equals 5 million additional homeowners have no
equity in their home. This suggests only 57% of U.S.
households own a home with equity value. If you believe that
many will strategically default, this will push
homeownership even lower.
Here are the many variables that will affect
homeownership over the coming years.
Factors Pushing Homeownership Up
● Aging Demographics - If we built a fence
around the U.S. and did not let immigrants in,
homeownership would go up due mostly to the fact
that homeownership rises as you age.
●
New Households - Every year, millions of
young people reach the age where they leave their
parents and go out on their own. This far exceeds
the households lost to death. The actual numbers
cycle with the economy, however, as they won't leave
if they can't find a job or can't afford housing.
●
Great Affordability - Approximately 58% of
homeowners can afford the median priced home vs. 45%
historically (assuming a 31% front-end DTI ratio and
a 95% LTV). Affordable housing and generous mortgage
terms impact housing greatly.
●
Social Policy - Elected officials seem to be
very much in favor of high homeownership because it
builds equity and provides neighborhood stability.
While that's correct in theory, they need to balance
that goal with the fiscal reality that not everyone
is financially responsible enough to save some money
for a down payment and to make their mortgage
payment every month!
Factors Pushing Homeownership Down
●
Immigration - Immigrants tend to rent first
before buying. A rule of thumb is that immigrants
average 7 years as a renter before becoming a buyer.
The higher the immigration, the lower the
homeownership rate.
●
Lending Policies Tightening - Fannie Mae,
Freddie Mac and FHA have tightened standards, but it
is still much easier than usual to get a mortgage.
For most of the last 50 years, 20% down payments or
10% down payments with mortgage insurance, 32%
front-end and 40% back-end debt to income ratios
were the norms. Fannie and Freddie will still buy
loans in some states over $700,000. Fifteen years
ago, the maximum was only $203,000. Thanks to
government mandates to get more aggressive,
mortgages have become much easier to obtain, with
default risks borne by the taxpayer.
●
Defaults - As mentioned above, 8 million
homeowners are not paying their mortgage, and this
number grows every day. The loan modifications have
little prayer of helping, primarily because so many
of these consumers have too much additional debt. As
an example, the homeowners who have received
permanent modification pay more than 30% of their
income to service debt that is not their mortgage.
Today, the official homeownership rate stands at 67.1% -
back to a level consistent with early 2001. Now that the
economy has slowed much more than expected, consumers have
moved back to the sidelines (despite the fantastic interest
rates and affordability). Adults with incomes can afford to
buy homes, and we have 7.4 million fewer adults with incomes
today than we did at the peak in 2007.
Economic
Growth............................................................................D+
The economic growth data improved slightly this month,
although we are seeing signs that the economy is slowing,
which will show up in the data releases in July and August.
Retail sales and personal income growth continued to
increase on a year-over-year basis, and year-over-year job
losses continued to ease. Q1 Real GDP grew 2.7%, which is
down from 5.6% last quarter. The unemployment rate decreased
this month to 9.5%, and the broader measure of unemployment,
the U-6, decreased to 16.5%. The length of unemployment in
the labor force increased to 34.4 weeks this month, which is
a new record high since the BLS began tracking the statistic
in 1948. Personal income growth improved for the fifth
consecutive time since December 2008, increasing by 1.6%.
The CPI (all items) decreased to 2.0% from 2.2% last month,
while the Core CPI (minus food and energy) held steady at
0.9% compared to last month.
Leading
Indicators...........................................................................C
The ECRI Leading Index - an indicator of future U.S. growth
- decreased this month compared to the previous month, and
the yearly growth rate remains positive but has slowed to
7.9% year-over-year growth. Stocks declined this month, with
the S&P 500 down 5.4%. All four major indices have still
experienced large positive year-over-year growth, ranging
from +12% to +16%. The S&P Homebuilding Index got hammered
this month, declining 18%, as weaker than expected home
builder orders and CEO commentary made investors quite
skittish. The spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year
treasury narrowed this month, decreasing to 167 bps and is
well below the peak of nearly 270 bps in March 2009 as Wall
Street has become less worried about businesses failing over
the past year. Business credit availability remains poor
overall, but conditions are slowly improving.
Affordability......................................................................................C--
Affordability continues to be excellent as mortgage rates
and median home prices throughout the country remain
extremely low. Our housing-cost-to-income ratio ticked up
just slightly to 26.2%, but housing affordability remains
excellent compared to history. Affordability is so good that
owning the median-price home is only $64 more expensive than
renting the average apartment. Household income has fallen
3.6% year-over-year to $53,678 as a result of large job
losses and government furloughs. The
median-home-price-to-income ratio ticked up to 3.3 and is
now equal to the historical average. The 30-year fixed
mortgage rate decreased to 4.69% this month, while
adjustable mortgage fell to 3.77%. The Fed's overnight
lending target rate remained at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%,
which is the lowest level on record. The share of ARM
applications decreased to 4.9% this month, but is still
significantly less than the peak level of 35% of total
applications in early 2005.
Consumer
Behavior..........................................................................D+
Consumer behavior improved slightly this month as several
metrics trended upward. Consumer sentiment increased
slightly to 76.0 but remains well below the historical
average. The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 52.9,
and is still at a very, very low level. The credit
outstanding per household has fallen 9.9% over the last year
to $7,498 per household. The personal savings rate ticked up
to 4.0%, but is still down from the recent peak of 6.9% in
May 2009. The Misery Index decreased this month, falling to
11.7 from 12.1 the previous month. This was the result of a
slight decrease in both the unemployment rate and the
inflation rate.
Existing Home
Market.......................................................................D+
The existing home market worsened slightly this month as
sales volume and purchase mortgage applications declined now
that the federal tax credit has expired. The seasonally
adjusted annual resale activity dropped to 5.66 million
homes this month, according to the National Association of
Realtors (NAR), but has still increased 19% year-over-year,
albeit from low levels. On a rolling 12-month basis sales
have improved for twelve consecutive months, increasing 0.7%
compared to the previous month and 16% year-over-year. The
national median price of an existing single-family home
ticked up to $179,400 currently from $172,500 the previous
month, and the median price has increased 2.7%
year-over-year. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home
Price Index improved drastically, and has returned to
positive territory this quarter for the first time since
late 2006, increasing 2.0% year-over-year. The number of
unsold homes decreased slightly to 8.3 months of supply,
which is above the historical average. Pending home sales
decreased sharply this month to the lowest level on record
due to the expired tax credit. Approximately 24% of all
homes with a mortgage throughout the U.S. were worth less
than the balance of the mortgage.
New Home
Market..............................................................................C-
Overall, the new home market worsened this month as sales
activity decreased sharply. Builder confidence declined to
17 from 22 last month, which is due in part to a decrease in
sales as a result of the expired federal tax credit. The
seasonally adjusted new home sales volume has fallen 19%
year-over-year to 300,000 transactions, which is the lowest
level on record dating back to 1963. However, the sample
size used by the Census Bureau to calculate this metric is
extremely small and the confidence interval is quite large.
The rolling 12-month total still climbed this month to
384,000 transactions, but remains near historically low
levels. The median single-family new home price decreased to
$200,900, and has dropped 9.6% year-over-year. The inventory
of unsold homes increased sharply this month to 8.0 months
of supply, but the volume of new homes for sale dropped
slightly to 213,000 homes.
Repairs and
Remodeling....................................................................C-
Conditions for residential repairs and remodeling are
slightly better this month, with multiple metrics improving
recently. Homeowner improvement activity declined 6.7%
year-over-year. The Remodeling Market Index increased
sharply this quarter to 47.0 from 36.4 the previous quarter.
In addition, the index has ticked up just above the
historical average of 46.6. Private residential construction
has increased year-over-year for the third time since June
2006 this month, increasing 11.2%.
Housing
Supply...................................................................................F
Housing supply worsened slightly this month, as new home
completions, starts, and permits all decreased. Total
completions declined to 687,000 units this month, as
builders have reduced construction activity now that the
federal tax credit deadline has passed. Seasonally adjusted
new home starts also decreased this month, due to a decrease
in single-family starts. Seasonally adjusted total permits
decreased to 574,000 this month, which is a 6%
month-over-month drop, but permits have still increased 4%
year-over-year. Although vacancy rates in the U.S. have
improved in recent quarters, the majority of the U.S.
remains oversupplied compared to history. Just five states
in the U.S. are currently undersupplied - Oklahoma, New
Mexico, North Dakota, Montana and Alaska. The homeowner
vacancy rate decreased this quarter to 2.6%, which is down
from 2.7% last quarter.
|
U.S. HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS |
|
Data Current Through July 13, 2010 |
| |
| |
|
|
Grade* |
|
Overall Grade |
|
|
D+ |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Economic Growth |
|
|
D+ |
|
These are the best
indicators of how the economy is currently
performing. |
| Real
GDP (annual rate) |
2.7% |
|
C |
|
Employment Growth (1-year Change) |
|
- Non-ag Payroll, NSA |
-69,000 |
|
C- |
|
Employment Growth Rate |
|
- Non-ag Payroll, NSA |
-0.1% |
|
C- |
|
Unemployment Rate |
9.5% |
|
F |
|
Average Length of Unemployment (Weeks) |
34.4 |
|
|
|
Median Length of Unemployment (Weeks) |
23.2 |
|
|
|
% of Labor Force Unemployed (27 weeks and over) |
4.4% |
|
|
| U.S.
Initial Jobless Claims |
472,000 |
|
|
| Mass
Layoff Events, SA (YOY % Change) |
0.0% |
|
C |
|
Productivity |
2.8% |
|
C |
|
Retail Sales |
6.7% |
|
B- |
|
Capacity Utilization |
73.7% |
|
D |
|
Inflation |
|
Core CPI |
1.1% |
|
A |
|
Full CPI |
2.0% |
|
C |
|
Personal Income Growth, nominal |
1.6% |
|
D |
|
Federal Deficit (last 12 mos., $mil curr.) |
-$1,370,016 |
|
F |
| U.S.
Immigration as a % of Total Population |
0.4% |
|
|
| Total
Population Growth |
1.0% |
|
|
|
Total Households |
111,850,000 |
|
|
|
- Growth Rate |
1.1% |
|
D+ |
| Owned
Households |
75,065,000 |
|
|
|
- Growth Rate |
0.5% |
|
D |
|
Rented Households |
36,785,000 |
|
|
|
- Growth Rate |
2.3% |
|
B- |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Leading
Indicators |
|
|
C |
|
These have all proven
to be predictable early indicators of the direction
of economic growth. |
|
Leading Econ. Index (Ann. Growth Rate Last 6 Mos.) |
7.9% |
|
B- |
| ECRI
Leading Index |
0.4% |
|
C |
|
Manpower Net Employment Outlook |
6% |
|
D |
| U.S.
Vistage CEO Confidence Index |
94% |
|
|
| CEO
Economic Outlook Survey |
95% |
|
|
| U.S.
Average Hours Worked per Week |
33.5 |
|
|
|
Temporary Employed Workers |
19.6% |
|
0 |
|
Corporate Profit Growth (pre-tax) |
34.0% |
|
B |
|
Corporate Bond Spread (Corp Bond vs. 10-Yr Tres.) |
167.0% |
|
|
|
Capital Goods New Orders |
17.6% |
|
A |
| Money
Supply - M2 |
-0.3% |
|
D+ |
|
Interest Rate Spread |
|
10-year Treasury |
3.17% |
|
|
|
2-year Treasury |
0.69% |
|
|
|
Interest Rate Spread |
2.48% |
|
B+ |
|
3-month LIBOR |
0.53% |
|
|
|
3-month Treasury |
0.13% |
|
|
|
TED Spread |
0.40% |
|
C |
|
Stock Market (Return over last 12 months) |
|
Dow Jones |
16% |
|
C |
|
S&P 500 |
12% |
|
C |
|
NASDAQ |
15% |
|
C |
|
Wilshire 5000 |
14% |
|
C |
|
S&P Super Homebuilding |
7% |
|
C |
|
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Large Firms |
-7% |
|
B |
|
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Small Firms |
0% |
|
B- |
| Crude
Oil Price (Current $) |
$75.35 |
|
D+ |
| ISM
Manufacturing Index |
56.2 |
|
C |
| ISM
Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index |
61.1 |
|
B |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Affordability |
|
|
C- |
|
These statistics are
probably the most important indicators of short-term
housing market performance. |
|
Conforming Mortgage
Rates (contract rate; an additional 0.6 - 1.0 points
are also paid up front by the borrower) |
| JBREC
Affordability Index |
1.1 |
|
A- |
| US
Median Home Payment / Income Ratio |
26.2% |
|
|
| US
Median Home Price / Income Ratio |
3.3 |
|
C |
|
Mortgage Rates, Fixed |
4.69% |
|
A+ |
|
Mortgage Rates, Adjustable |
3.77% |
|
A |
|
Fixed/Adjustable Spread |
0.92% |
|
D |
|
Fixed/10-year Spread |
1.52% |
|
C |
| Fed
Funds Rate |
0.15% |
|
|
|
Percentage of Adjust. Loans |
4.9% |
|
A- |
|
Equity/Owned Home (Current $) |
$83,487 |
|
D- |
| Debt
% in Home (LTV) - Homes with Mortgages |
85.3% |
|
F |
|
Median Household Income |
$53,678 |
|
|
|
- Growth Rate, nominal |
-3.6% |
|
F |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Consumer
Behavior |
|
|
D+ |
|
Consumer attitudes
correlate well with short-term housing sales
performance. Consumer income growth, debt levels and
job prospects affect the long-term outlook for
housing sales. |
|
Consumer Confidence Index |
52.9 |
|
D- |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
76.0 |
|
D+ |
|
Consumer Comfort Index |
-43.0 |
|
F |
|
Revolving Cons. Credit per Household |
$7,498 |
|
|
|
- Growth Rate |
-11.7% |
|
A+ |
|
Personal Savings Rate |
4.0% |
|
D+ |
| U.S.
Net Worth Growth Rate |
13.0% |
|
B |
|
Financial Obligation Ratio |
17.5% |
|
C- |
|
Misery Index (Unemployment + Inflation) |
11.72 |
|
C- |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Existing Home
Market |
|
|
D+ |
|
Sales volumes
correlate well with the Housing Cycle calculations,
and boost the trade up New Home sales market. |
|
S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. Price Index (YOY % Change) |
2.0% |
|
C |
| NAR
Single-Family Median Home Price |
$179,400 |
|
|
| NAR
Single-Family Annual Price Appreciation |
2.7% |
|
C |
|
Freddie Mac Annual Price Appreciation |
-6.7% |
|
F |
|
Annual Sales Volume, SA |
5,660,000 |
|
B |
|
Existing Home Inventory for Sale, SA |
3,892,000 |
|
D- |
|
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA |
8.3 |
|
C- |
|
Purchase Mort. App. Index, SA |
201.6 |
|
D+ |
|
Pending Home Sales Index, SA |
77.6 |
|
F |
|
Homeownership Rate |
67.1% |
|
B |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
New Home Market |
|
|
C- |
|
High appreciation and
low inventory would mean an excellent short-term
outlook for the new home industry. |
|
Housing Market Index |
17 |
|
F |
|
Multifamily Condo Market Index |
25 |
|
D+ |
|
Median Price, NSA |
$200,900 |
|
|
|
Annual Appreciation Rate |
-9.6% |
|
F |
|
Constant Quality Price Index (YOY % Change) |
2.5% |
|
C- |
| Sales
Volume, SA |
300,000 |
|
F |
| New
Home Inventory for Sale, NSA |
213,000 |
|
A- |
|
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA |
8.5 |
|
B- |
|
Months of Homes Completed, SA |
3.3 |
|
B- |
|
Months of Homes Under Const., SA |
4.0 |
|
C+ |
|
Months of Homes Not Started, SA |
1.2 |
|
B- |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Repairs and
Remodeling |
|
|
C- |
|
High remodeling
levels are good for the economy and are closely tied
to consumer confidence. |
|
Homeowner Improvement Activity (YOY % Change) |
-6.7% |
|
D |
|
Remodeling Market Index - Current |
47.0 |
|
C |
|
Remodeling Market Index - Future Expectations |
48.9 |
|
B- |
|
Private Residential Construction (YOY % Change) |
11.2% |
|
B |
|
Residential Investment as % of GDP (nominal) |
2.4% |
|
F |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
Statistic |
|
Grade |
|
Housing Supply |
|
|
F |
|
High construction
levels are good for the economy. However, if new
supply exceeds demand, prices could fall. |
| New
Housing Units Completed, SA |
687,000 |
|
F |
|
Single-Family Starts, SA |
468,000 |
|
F |
|
Multifamily Starts, SA |
125,000 |
|
F |
|
Total Starts, SA |
593,000 |
|
F |
|
Single-Family Permits, SA |
438,000 |
|
F |
|
Multifamily Permits, SA |
136,000 |
|
F |
|
Total Permits, SA |
574,000 |
|
F |
| Manuf.
Housing Placements, SA |
53,000 |
|
F |
|
Total Supply, SA |
627,000 |
|
F |
| Total
Housing Stock |
130,873,000 |
|
|
|
Homeowner Vacancy Rate |
2.6% |
|
F |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| SA
stands for Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. NSA
stands for Not Seasonally Adjusted. |
| * The
best 15% ever are "A" scores, the average is a "C",
and the worst 15% ever are "F" scores, with
distributions throughout. |
top
A Nation of Renters?
As
if homeowners didn’t have enough problems, the
Administration may shift its focus to promoting renting.
To his credit, President Obama has put a lot of effort
into bolstering the beleaguered housing market.
Certainly not all of the Administration’s programs have
achieved the hoped for level of success, but it is not
for lack of trying or for resistance to modifying them
numerous times in pursuit of the right formula.
There are emerging signs that the President is in the
process of shifting away from programs that will
preserve home values and/or support home ownership, in
favor of programs that will bolster the rental market.
Signs include
statements from Department of Housing and Urban
Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. He has been
involved in urban housing issues for much of his career
and believes that they deserve more focus. In
Congressional testimony he said that "While we continue
to promote affordable homeownership, for many Americans,
renting will continue to be the only or preferred
option." Other senior Administration figures are sending
similar signals. HUD official Raphael Bostic said that
"In previous eras, we haven't seen people question
whether homeownership was the right decision. It was
just assumed that's where you want to go. You're not
going to hear us say that."
These statements suggest that the Administration sees a
diminished future role for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or
their successors. Both have played a significant role in
expanding home ownership over the years. Congress is
expected to address the future of both organizations
next year. Fannie and Freddie lost billions of dollars
as a result of the housing collapse. Though late to the
party, many believe they followed the lead of some
mortgage bankers and other sectors of the financial
services sector in terms of unsound practices.
Reduced federal support for home ownership could
translate into larger required down payments, higher
mortgage interest rates, and reduced levels of home
ownership among lower-income consumers. In anticipation
of shifts in home ownership policy, in April the
Treasury Department released questions for public
comment on the future of the housing finance system,
including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the overall
role of the federal government in housing policy.
The questions appear below The Administration will hold
a series of public forums across the country on housing
finance reform to broaden input.
Questions for Public Solicitation of Input:
1. How should federal
housing finance objectives be prioritized in the context of
the broader objectives of housing policy?
● Commentary could address: policy for
sustainable homeownership; rental policy;
balancing rental and ownership; how to account
for regional differences; and affordability
goals.
2. What role should the
federal government play in supporting a stable,
well-functioning housing finance system and what risks, if
any, should the federal government bear in meeting its
housing finance objectives?
● Commentary could
address: level of government involvement and type of
support provided; role of government agencies; role
of private vs. public capital; role of any explicit
government guarantees; role of direct subsidies and
other fiscal support and mechanisms to convey such
support; monitoring and management of risks
including how to balance the retention and
distribution of risk; incentives to encourage
appropriate alignment of risk bearing in the private
sector; mechanisms for dealing with episodes of
market stress; and how to promote market discipline.
3. Should the government
approach differ across different segments of the market, and
if so, how?
● Commentary could
address: differentiation of approach based on
mortgage size or other characteristics; rationale
for integration or separation of functions related
to the single-family and multi-family market;
whether there should be an emphasis on supporting
the production of subsidized multifamily housing;
differentiation in mechanism to convey subsidies, if
any.
4. How should the current
organization of the housing finance system be improved?
● Commentary could
address: what aspects should be preserved, changed,
eliminated or added; regulatory considerations;
optimal general organizational design and market
structure; capital market functions; sources of
funding; mortgage origination, distribution and
servicing; the role of the existing
government-sponsored enterprises; and the challenges
of transitioning from the current system to a
desired future system.
5. How should the housing
finance system support sound market practices?
● Commentary could
address underwriting standards; how best to balance
risk and access; and extent to which housing finance
systems that reference certain standards and
mortgage products contribute to this objective.
6. What is the best way for
the housing finance system to help ensure consumers are
protected from unfair, abusive or deceptive practices?
● Commentary could address: level of consumer
protections and limitation; supervising agencies;
specific restrictions; and role of consumer
education
7. Do housing finance
systems in other countries offer insights that can help
inform US reform choices?
The American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance believes that
any withdrawal of support for home ownership would be ill
timed to say the least.Home equity is the single largest
form of savings for most homeowners. Millions of moderate
income homeowners pay off their mortgage over the course of
their working career, and their freedom from mortgage
payments in retirement enables them to maintain a
comfortable lifestyle from their social security, savings,
and pensions. With the latter two continuing to decline, we
should reinforce our support for home ownership. Without
that home equity, many future retirees who worked hard and
productively throughout their careers will find their
incomes below the income poverty line in retirement, and in
need of federal safety net support, at great cost to
taxpayers.
Home ownership benefits society in other ways as well. It
contributes substantially to maintaining a healthy middle
class and in doing so contributes to social stability. This
is not to criticize efforts to support rental housing, but a
country with a huge number of renters and a small number of
rich investors is characteristic of third world nations.
Going forward, the Obama Administration should take care
that its housing policy does not push the U.S. in that
direction by reducing incentives for people to own a home to
providing even more taxpayer subsidies to multihousing
investors in order to make renting more attractive than home
ownership.
top
|

Please take the time to contact your legislators and express your
views on pending policy issues covered in this
month’s Home Base. It's easy - you can reach your
legislators by email in a couple of mouse clicks,
and you can use the content in Home Base and
elsewhere on our website to help you develop your
message.
To look up the phone number, email, and/or postal address of your
U.S. Representative or your two U.S. Senators, (or
your state representative or state senator)
click here. You can also look up which
legislators represent your zip code if you don’t
recall their names.
A personal meeting is a particularly effective way
to get their attention and reinforce your message.
Many legislators are also happy to meet personally
with their constituents when they are back home on
weekends or when Congress is not in session. This
summer Congress will be in recess
August 9 - September 12.
Please consider also requesting a follow up
face-to-face meeting in their home state or home
district offices near you when you contact their
Washington DC offices on policy issues.
Is there a policy issue that is particularly
important to you which significantly impacts
homeowners or home ownership? Any member may propose
a position on a policy issue, so please check the
American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance's 2010 Issue
Guide.
If it isn't on the list, we invite you to send us an
email and tell us why you think the American
Homeowners Grassroots Alliance should take a
position and work on it.
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