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Home Base

A publication of
the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance and the American Homeowners Foundation
  

 www.americanhomeowners.org


August
, 2010



In this issue of Home Base:

Financial Services Regulation Overhauled

Staycations Catching On

Technology Experts Argue that Too Much Regulation Hurts Innovation

The Cold Hard Truth About Home Ownership

A Nation of Renters?


Financial Services Regulation Overhauled

Badly needed, but will it work?

The American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance applauded Congress and President Obama for
passing and signing comprehensive financial services reform legislation in July. The new law gives the government more power and more tools to prevent many types of financial services firms from causing another economic meltdown. While the legislation is imperfect in the view of most proponents and opponents, until now no restrictions have been put in place to prevent a repeat of the misjudgments that could have caused another Great Depression. That alone is an improvement over relying on the memory spans of the small number of se
nior corporate leaders whose decisions caused the meltdown to prevent its recurrence.

Ten regulatory agencies will be given wide discretion to write hundreds of new rules governing finance based on the guidelines set out in the legislation. For that reason the effectiveness of the bill will be far more dependent on the regulatory process and ultimately on case-by-case decisions by regulators. Consumer groups fear that this could lead to a repeat of the same industry regulatory capture that lead a number of regulatory agencies ignoring their oversight responsibilities prior the recent meltdown. For their part, financial sector firms fear the opposite – arbitrary and overly restrictive rules that could hurt their stockholders and the economy. A council of regulators has been created to monitor economic risks, and a new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection was created to police financial products. The 2,300 page bill also sets stricter standards for derivatives trading.

Several contentious issues were not addressed in the bill. These include the future of government sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which play a critical role in mortgage finance and have lost billions of dollars. Congress may address this issue next year. In the interest of passing the bill, also taken off the table were new regulations of auto loans by car dealers.

The effectiveness of this landmark legislation in many areas will depend on the process of developing implementing regulations, where the outcomes can range from strong and effective new rules to unintended consequences, and/or ineffective regulations.

Based on the history of major reforms, we will probably see some of all three. The legislation will also be revisited many times both to address loopholes and overkill. Both lie in the eyes of the beholders and will be subject to public opinion regarding financial services sector practices after the regulations have been implemented. Nevertheless there is today less likelihood of a future financial services meltdown than there was yesterday. For that we should be grateful, and thank the sausage makers for all the time and effort they put into the process.

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Staycations Catching On

The economy leaves many with no other choices, but there are other reasons too.

Staycations have become a popular option for more homeowners, in many cases because they cannot afford the luxury vacation of years past. Staycations refer to local (or fairly local) vacations, including spending the vacation at home. The time can be devoted to local sites you’ve always wanted to see (or just found out about), new hobbies or other activities, or projects around the home that have been stuck on your to do list for years. Staycations are often fairly brief, also due to economic considerations. In some cases other factors are also involved – some homeowners want to lighten their carbon footprint, or they are sick and tired of the hassles of airline travel today. In an era when airline service has become an oxymoron and baggage charges can exceed the airline ticket price, who can blame them?

Some staycations might better be described as mini vacations. Well situated destinations are benefiting from the trend. While many giant luxury cruise ships are leaving port with many empty rooms, smaller vessels are doing fine. John Gibson, owner of Downriver Canoe Company (http://www.downriver.com/) not far from Washington, DC, said he’s experiencing the best year of the company’s 30 year history. Many customers have told him that a whitewater canoe, tube or raft trip down the Shenandoah River is a great alternative that is much easier on the wallet than their past summer vacations.

Some homeowners can still afford the two week trip to Europe, but instead are repurposing vacation budgets to remodeling projects that can help rebuild lost equity in their home. The money saved from such a vacation can translate into a nice deck or outdoor kitchen, both perfect places to spend part of their staycation. According to Arizona Tile Company, “Favorite retreats or leisure spots outside of the home are mimicked inside the home property (indoor and outdoor) to create a vacation or leisure-like setting, in order to create a “staycation” environment. People are using their set-aside vacation budgets for home remodeling as staying-at-home for vacations has become more common.” In addition to adding equity the homeowners benefit from long term enjoyment of the improvement or increased marketability of their home if a sale is in their future.

Simply Google “staycation” and you’ll learn how popular they’ve become (1,340,000 results for staycation ideas). They cover everything from planning your staycation to lists of possible staycation ideas. It quickly became apparent that a staycation can be every bit as exhausting as a vacation if you’re willing to put the work into it.

The number of staycation ideas and suggestions is almost endless. It’s worth a few minutes toreview several of the lists. You’re almost certain to see a couple of great ideas that never occurred to you, and are worth doing, whether your economic circumstance limits your choices or not. One of the longer lists is at http://www.supereco.com/news/2009/05/07/how-to-plan-a-staycation/  It also has embedded links for more information on each of its 37 suggestions.

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Technology Experts Argue that Too Much Regulation Hurts Innovation

While many policymakers are recognizing the threat, backsliding continues.

There have been relatively few bright spots in the American economy in recent years. From the perspective of American homeowners, one of them has been the continuing evolution of new information and communications technology tools that have made their personal and business lives significantly better and more productive.

Along with this progress there have been numerous and contentious debates over whether additional regulation of that sector is needed, and if so what form it should take. In recent months a more collaborative approach has begun to emerge. Legislators, regulators, and consumer groups with diverse philosophies, and corporations with competing business objectives have begun to cut back on rhetoric in favor of more productive dialogue to seek mutually acceptable solutions to policy challenges in this area. As an organization whose members are predominantly pragmatists and moderates, the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance is delighted with this development.

As reported in the June issue of Home Base, Congress and the Federal Communications Commission have initiated collaborative discussions on the best way to repurpose the Universal Service Fund (USF) to promote broadband build-out and affordability. The USF was originally focused on insuring that all consumers had access to wireline telephone service, but it is clear consumers are rapidly abandoning that earlier technology in favor of wireless service, which today can also provide increasingly sophisticated Internet access. The Federal Communications Commission's Wireline Competition Bureau hosted June discussions with key stakeholders with opposing perspectives to try to narrow differences. Congress has also begun hearings on how to modify the USF, and will provide the FCC needed direction and authority in that area.

In the House of Representatives, Internet Subcommittee Chairman Rick Boucher (D-VA.) and Ranking Member Cliff Stearns (R-FL) are also meeting with stakeholders with diverse perspectives to develop a new framework for broadband Internet service regulation. That effort is necessary in light of a recent court decision that casts questions regarding the FCC’s current scope of authority in that area. The FCC also hosted a June meeting with key business stakeholders to explore the possibility of developing a consensus approach regarding “network neutrality,” the principle that consumers are entitled to unrestricted access to Internet information, including products and services. It would have been better if those discussions had preceded the FCC’s announcement of a regulatory regime to achieve those goals, but late is better than never. In July, Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) indirectly lent his support to a more collaborative approach when he asked the FCC chairman to drop his current push to re-regulate broadband lines.

In the face of dramatic growth in mobile spectrum consumption, we will soon run out of available spectrum suitable for mobile applications unless the inventory is expanded. The FCC is also working with TV stations to encourage them to allow the government to auction some of their unused spectrum that is suitable for mobile applications, in exchange for a share of the auction proceeds.

“We don’t believe that these more collaborative efforts will resolve all the differences on every issue,” observed American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance President Bruce Hahn. “What they will hopefully do is reduce the scope of differences, improving the chances of a successful outcome. By removing much of the uncertainty regarding the final resolution, the policy debate is likely to have less of an impact on the continued flow of new technologies and tools.

The importance of more certainty in technology policy was underscored by a panel of financial experts speaking at a July seminar sponsored by the New York Law School. Telecom analysts and consultants observed that the FCC’s consideration of network neutrality and broadband regulation reclassification is creating uncertainty in the minds of telecom sector investors. With such investments subject to higher risk because of the rapid development of new technologies and/or requiring many years to recover, the introduction of external policy factors that could add more risk could also undermine investment. That in turn could slow the process of innovation and access to these services by the unserved or the underserved.

The importance of minimizing uncertainty applies to all the various policy debates in the technology sector. Unfortunately, there continue to be unilateral regulatory initiatives in this area that that could hurt consumers and slow the evolution of new technology. One example was the June introduction of federal legislation to require all homeowners and other consumers to pay sales taxes on all of their Internet purchases.

The legislation was introduced at the request of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), which represents owners of shopping malls. Internet Commerce is growing rapidly as consumers grow to appreciate not only the time saving and selection it offers, but also saving drives to the mall, auto expenses and air pollution, traffic hassles, and the difficulty of finding a convenient parking spot in the mall parking lot in the middle of a hot August day. Consumers are also increasingly having their garage sales on the Internet, which explains why 85% of consumers oppose sales taxes on Internet purchases. Hopefully the bill’s sponsor, Representative William Delahunt (D – MA 10) and NAREIT will both will take a cue from other players in the technology sector, and initiate a dialogue with consumer groups and others on the other side of the issue to explore alternative solutions to the decline of shopping malls.

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The Cold Hard Truth About Home Ownership

We hear good news, we hear bad news, but the underlying data is scary.

Many homeowners are increasingly suffering from “factoid frustration” as a result of the alternating good news - bad news media stories about the housing market. A recent article by John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting (www.realestateconsulting.com), offered some sobering analysis as well as a thoughtful report card on the current state of economic growth, affordability, the home market and other factors. Mr. Burns’ article is reprinted below. current

62% Homeownership on the Horizon

Our recent experiences in D.C. confirm that homeownership is clearly a value that is promoted by most politicians. They are in for a rude awakening, however, and a legacy that they will not be proud of.

8 million homeowners are currently not paying their mortgage, and we believe 6 million of them will lose their home to the bank in the next 2 years. This will reduce the homeownership rate to 62%, as follows:

According to a recent study, another 5% of all households which roughly equals 5 million additional homeowners have no equity in their home. This suggests only 57% of U.S. households own a home with equity value. If you believe that many will strategically default, this will push homeownership even lower.

Here are the many variables that will affect homeownership over the coming years.

Factors Pushing Homeownership Up

Aging Demographics - If we built a fence around the U.S. and did not let immigrants in, homeownership would go up due mostly to the fact that homeownership rises as you age.

New Households - Every year, millions of young people reach the age where they leave their parents and go out on their own. This far exceeds the households lost to death. The actual numbers cycle with the economy, however, as they won't leave if they can't find a job or can't afford housing.

Great Affordability - Approximately 58% of homeowners can afford the median priced home vs. 45% historically (assuming a 31% front-end DTI ratio and a 95% LTV). Affordable housing and generous mortgage terms impact housing greatly.

Social Policy - Elected officials seem to be very much in favor of high homeownership because it builds equity and provides neighborhood stability. While that's correct in theory, they need to balance that goal with the fiscal reality that not everyone is financially responsible enough to save some money for a down payment and to make their mortgage payment every month!

Factors Pushing Homeownership Down

Immigration - Immigrants tend to rent first before buying. A rule of thumb is that immigrants average 7 years as a renter before becoming a buyer. The higher the immigration, the lower the homeownership rate.

Lending Policies Tightening - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA have tightened standards, but it is still much easier than usual to get a mortgage. For most of the last 50 years, 20% down payments or 10% down payments with mortgage insurance, 32% front-end and 40% back-end debt to income ratios were the norms. Fannie and Freddie will still buy loans in some states over $700,000. Fifteen years ago, the maximum was only $203,000. Thanks to government mandates to get more aggressive, mortgages have become much easier to obtain, with default risks borne by the taxpayer.

Defaults - As mentioned above, 8 million homeowners are not paying their mortgage, and this number grows every day. The loan modifications have little prayer of helping, primarily because so many of these consumers have too much additional debt. As an example, the homeowners who have received permanent modification pay more than 30% of their income to service debt that is not their mortgage.

Today, the official homeownership rate stands at 67.1% - back to a level consistent with early 2001. Now that the economy has slowed much more than expected, consumers have moved back to the sidelines (despite the fantastic interest rates and affordability). Adults with incomes can afford to buy homes, and we have 7.4 million fewer adults with incomes today than we did at the peak in 2007.

Economic Growth............................................................................D+
The economic growth data improved slightly this month, although we are seeing signs that the economy is slowing, which will show up in the data releases in July and August. Retail sales and personal income growth continued to increase on a year-over-year basis, and year-over-year job losses continued to ease. Q1 Real GDP grew 2.7%, which is down from 5.6% last quarter. The unemployment rate decreased this month to 9.5%, and the broader measure of unemployment, the U-6, decreased to 16.5%. The length of unemployment in the labor force increased to 34.4 weeks this month, which is a new record high since the BLS began tracking the statistic in 1948. Personal income growth improved for the fifth consecutive time since December 2008, increasing by 1.6%. The CPI (all items) decreased to 2.0% from 2.2% last month, while the Core CPI (minus food and energy) held steady at 0.9% compared to last month.

Leading Indicators...........................................................................C
The ECRI Leading Index - an indicator of future U.S. growth - decreased this month compared to the previous month, and the yearly growth rate remains positive but has slowed to 7.9% year-over-year growth. Stocks declined this month, with the S&P 500 down 5.4%. All four major indices have still experienced large positive year-over-year growth, ranging from +12% to +16%. The S&P Homebuilding Index got hammered this month, declining 18%, as weaker than expected home builder orders and CEO commentary made investors quite skittish. The spread between corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury narrowed this month, decreasing to 167 bps and is well below the peak of nearly 270 bps in March 2009 as Wall Street has become less worried about businesses failing over the past year. Business credit availability remains poor overall, but conditions are slowly improving.

Affordability......................................................................................C--
Affordability continues to be excellent as mortgage rates and median home prices throughout the country remain extremely low. Our housing-cost-to-income ratio ticked up just slightly to 26.2%, but housing affordability remains excellent compared to history. Affordability is so good that owning the median-price home is only $64 more expensive than renting the average apartment. Household income has fallen 3.6% year-over-year to $53,678 as a result of large job losses and government furloughs. The median-home-price-to-income ratio ticked up to 3.3 and is now equal to the historical average. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 4.69% this month, while adjustable mortgage fell to 3.77%. The Fed's overnight lending target rate remained at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%, which is the lowest level on record. The share of ARM applications decreased to 4.9% this month, but is still significantly less than the peak level of 35% of total applications in early 2005.

Consumer Behavior..........................................................................D+
Consumer behavior improved slightly this month as several metrics trended upward. Consumer sentiment increased slightly to 76.0 but remains well below the historical average. The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 52.9, and is still at a very, very low level. The credit outstanding per household has fallen 9.9% over the last year to $7,498 per household. The personal savings rate ticked up to 4.0%, but is still down from the recent peak of 6.9% in May 2009. The Misery Index decreased this month, falling to 11.7 from 12.1 the previous month. This was the result of a slight decrease in both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.

Existing Home Market.......................................................................D+
The existing home market worsened slightly this month as sales volume and purchase mortgage applications declined now that the federal tax credit has expired. The seasonally adjusted annual resale activity dropped to 5.66 million homes this month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), but has still increased 19% year-over-year, albeit from low levels. On a rolling 12-month basis sales have improved for twelve consecutive months, increasing 0.7% compared to the previous month and 16% year-over-year. The national median price of an existing single-family home ticked up to $179,400 currently from $172,500 the previous month, and the median price has increased 2.7% year-over-year. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index improved drastically, and has returned to positive territory this quarter for the first time since late 2006, increasing 2.0% year-over-year. The number of unsold homes decreased slightly to 8.3 months of supply, which is above the historical average. Pending home sales decreased sharply this month to the lowest level on record due to the expired tax credit. Approximately 24% of all homes with a mortgage throughout the U.S. were worth less than the balance of the mortgage.

New Home Market..............................................................................C-
Overall, the new home market worsened this month as sales activity decreased sharply. Builder confidence declined to 17 from 22 last month, which is due in part to a decrease in sales as a result of the expired federal tax credit. The seasonally adjusted new home sales volume has fallen 19% year-over-year to 300,000 transactions, which is the lowest level on record dating back to 1963. However, the sample size used by the Census Bureau to calculate this metric is extremely small and the confidence interval is quite large. The rolling 12-month total still climbed this month to 384,000 transactions, but remains near historically low levels. The median single-family new home price decreased to $200,900, and has dropped 9.6% year-over-year. The inventory of unsold homes increased sharply this month to 8.0 months of supply, but the volume of new homes for sale dropped slightly to 213,000 homes.

Repairs and Remodeling....................................................................C-
Conditions for residential repairs and remodeling are slightly better this month, with multiple metrics improving recently. Homeowner improvement activity declined 6.7% year-over-year. The Remodeling Market Index increased sharply this quarter to 47.0 from 36.4 the previous quarter. In addition, the index has ticked up just above the historical average of 46.6. Private residential construction has increased year-over-year for the third time since June 2006 this month, increasing 11.2%.

Housing Supply...................................................................................F
Housing supply worsened slightly this month, as new home completions, starts, and permits all decreased. Total completions declined to 687,000 units this month, as builders have reduced construction activity now that the federal tax credit deadline has passed. Seasonally adjusted new home starts also decreased this month, due to a decrease in single-family starts. Seasonally adjusted total permits decreased to 574,000 this month, which is a 6% month-over-month drop, but permits have still increased 4% year-over-year. Although vacancy rates in the U.S. have improved in recent quarters, the majority of the U.S. remains oversupplied compared to history. Just five states in the U.S. are currently undersupplied - Oklahoma, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana and Alaska. The homeowner vacancy rate decreased this quarter to 2.6%, which is down from 2.7% last quarter.

U.S. HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS

Data Current Through July 13, 2010

 
         Grade*
Overall Grade           D+
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Economic Growth           D+
These are the best indicators of how the economy is currently performing.
Real GDP (annual rate)

2.7%

  C
Employment Growth (1-year Change)
   - Non-ag Payroll, NSA

-69,000

  C-
Employment Growth Rate
   - Non-ag Payroll, NSA

-0.1%

  C-
Unemployment Rate

9.5%

  F
   Average Length of Unemployment (Weeks)

34.4

   
   Median Length of Unemployment (Weeks)

23.2

   
   % of Labor Force Unemployed (27 weeks and over)

4.4%

   
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

  472,000

   
Mass Layoff Events, SA (YOY % Change)

0.0%

  C
Productivity

2.8%

  C
Retail Sales

6.7%

  B-
Capacity Utilization

73.7%

  D
Inflation
   Core CPI

1.1%

  A
   Full CPI

2.0%

  C
Personal Income Growth, nominal

1.6%

  D
Federal Deficit (last 12 mos., $mil curr.)

-$1,370,016

  F
U.S. Immigration as a % of Total Population

0.4%

   
Total Population Growth

1.0%

   
Total Households

111,850,000

   
   - Growth Rate

1.1%

  D+
Owned Households

  75,065,000

   
   - Growth Rate

0.5%

  D
Rented Households

  36,785,000

   
   - Growth Rate

2.3%

  B-
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Leading Indicators           C
These have all proven to be predictable early indicators of the direction of economic growth.
Leading Econ. Index (Ann. Growth Rate Last 6 Mos.)

7.9%

  B-
ECRI Leading Index

0.4%

  C
Manpower Net Employment Outlook

6%

  D
U.S. Vistage CEO Confidence Index

94%

   
CEO Economic Outlook Survey

95%

   
U.S. Average Hours Worked per Week

33.5

   
Temporary Employed Workers

19.6%

  0
Corporate Profit Growth (pre-tax)

34.0%

  B
Corporate Bond Spread (Corp Bond vs. 10-Yr Tres.)

167.0%

   
Capital Goods New Orders

17.6%

  A
Money Supply - M2

-0.3%

  D+
Interest Rate Spread
10-year Treasury

3.17%

   
2-year Treasury

0.69%

   
   Interest Rate Spread

2.48%

  B+
3-month LIBOR

0.53%

   
3-month Treasury

0.13%

   
   TED Spread

0.40%

  C
Stock Market (Return over last 12 months)
   Dow Jones

16%

  C
   S&P 500

12%

  C
   NASDAQ

15%

  C
   Wilshire 5000

14%

  C
   S&P Super Homebuilding

7%

  C
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Large Firms

-7%

  B
Tougher Standards on Business Loans - Small Firms

0%

  B-
Crude Oil Price (Current $)

$75.35

  D+
ISM Manufacturing Index

56.2

  C
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index

61.1

  B
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Affordability           C-
These statistics are probably the most important indicators of short-term housing market performance.
Conforming Mortgage Rates (contract rate; an additional 0.6 - 1.0 points are also paid up front by the borrower)
JBREC Affordability Index

1.1

  A-
US Median Home Payment / Income Ratio

26.2%

   
US Median Home Price / Income Ratio

3.3

  C
Mortgage Rates, Fixed

4.69%

  A+
Mortgage Rates, Adjustable

3.77%

  A
   Fixed/Adjustable Spread

0.92%

  D
   Fixed/10-year Spread

1.52%

  C
Fed Funds Rate

0.15%

   
Percentage of Adjust. Loans

4.9%

  A-
Equity/Owned Home (Current $)

$83,487

  D-
Debt % in Home (LTV) - Homes with Mortgages

85.3%

  F
Median Household Income

$53,678

   
   - Growth Rate, nominal

-3.6%

  F
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Consumer Behavior           D+
Consumer attitudes correlate well with short-term housing sales performance. Consumer income growth, debt levels and job prospects affect the long-term outlook for housing sales.
Consumer Confidence Index

52.9

  D-
Consumer Sentiment Index

76.0

  D+
Consumer Comfort Index

-43.0

  F
Revolving Cons. Credit per Household

$7,498

   
   - Growth Rate

-11.7%

  A+
Personal Savings Rate

4.0%

  D+
U.S. Net Worth Growth Rate

13.0%

  B
Financial Obligation Ratio

17.5%

  C-
Misery Index (Unemployment + Inflation)

11.72

  C-
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Existing Home Market           D+
Sales volumes correlate well with the Housing Cycle calculations, and boost the trade up New Home sales market.
S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. Price Index (YOY % Change)

2.0%

  C
NAR Single-Family Median Home Price

$179,400

   
NAR Single-Family Annual Price Appreciation

2.7%

  C
Freddie Mac Annual Price Appreciation

-6.7%

  F
Annual Sales Volume, SA

5,660,000

  B
Existing Home Inventory for Sale, SA

3,892,000

  D-
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA

8.3

  C-
Purchase Mort. App. Index, SA

201.6

  D+
Pending Home Sales Index, SA

77.6

  F
Homeownership Rate

67.1%

  B
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
New Home Market           C-
High appreciation and low inventory would mean an excellent short-term outlook for the new home industry.
Housing Market Index

17

  F
Multifamily Condo Market Index

25

  D+
Median Price, NSA

$200,900

   
Annual Appreciation Rate

-9.6%

  F
Constant Quality Price Index (YOY % Change)

2.5%

  C-
Sales Volume, SA

300,000

  F
New Home Inventory for Sale, NSA

213,000

  A-
Months Supply of Unsold Homes, SA

8.5

  B-
   Months of Homes Completed, SA

3.3

  B-
   Months of Homes Under Const., SA

4.0

  C+
   Months of Homes Not Started, SA

1.2

  B-
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Repairs and Remodeling           C-
High remodeling levels are good for the economy and are closely tied to consumer confidence.
Homeowner Improvement Activity (YOY % Change)

-6.7%

  D
Remodeling Market Index - Current

47.0

  C
Remodeling Market Index - Future Expectations

48.9

  B-
Private Residential Construction (YOY % Change)

11.2%

  B
Residential Investment as % of GDP (nominal)

2.4%

  F
                   
                   
 

Statistic

     Grade
Housing Supply           F
High construction levels are good for the economy. However, if new supply exceeds demand, prices could fall.
New Housing Units Completed, SA

687,000

  F
Single-Family Starts, SA

468,000

  F
Multifamily Starts, SA

125,000

  F
   Total Starts, SA

593,000

  F
Single-Family Permits, SA

438,000

  F
Multifamily Permits, SA

136,000

  F
   Total Permits, SA

574,000

  F
Manuf. Housing Placements, SA

53,000

  F
   Total Supply, SA

627,000

  F
Total Housing Stock

130,873,000

   
Homeowner Vacancy Rate

2.6%

  F
                   
                   
SA stands for Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. NSA stands for Not Seasonally Adjusted.
* The best 15% ever are "A" scores, the average is a "C", and the worst 15% ever are "F" scores, with distributions throughout.


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A Nation of Renters?

As if homeowners didn’t have enough problems, the Administration may shift its focus to promoting renting.

To his credit, President Obama has put a lot of effort into bolstering the beleaguered housing market. Certainly not all of the Administration’s programs have achieved the hoped for level of success, but it is not for lack of trying or for resistance to modifying them numerous times in pursuit of the right formula.

There are emerging signs that the President is in the process of shifting away from programs that will preserve home values and/or support home ownership, in favor of programs that will bolster the rental market. Signs inclu
de statements from Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. He has been involved in urban housing issues for much of his career and believes that they deserve more focus. In Congressional testimony he said that "While we continue to promote affordable homeownership, for many Americans, renting will continue to be the only or preferred option." Other senior Administration figures are sending similar signals. HUD official Raphael Bostic said that "In previous eras, we haven't seen people question whether homeownership was the right decision. It was just assumed that's where you want to go. You're not going to hear us say that."

These statements suggest that the Administration sees a diminished future role for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or their successors. Both have played a significant role in expanding home ownership over the years. Congress is expected to address the future of both organizations next year. Fannie and Freddie lost billions of dollars as a result of the housing collapse. Though late to the party, many believe they followed the lead of some mortgage bankers and other sectors of the financial services sector in terms of unsound practices.

Reduced federal support for home ownership could translate into larger required down payments, higher mortgage interest rates, and reduced levels of home ownership among lower-income consumers. In anticipation of shifts in home ownership policy, in April the Treasury Department released questions for public comment on the future of the housing finance system, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the overall role of the federal government in housing policy. 

The questions appear below The Administration will hold a series of public forums across the country on housing finance reform to broaden input.  

Questions for Public Solicitation of Input:

1.      How should federal housing finance objectives be prioritized in the context of the broader objectives of housing policy?

Commentary could address: policy for sustainable homeownership; rental policy; balancing rental and ownership; how to account for regional differences; and affordability goals.

2.      What role should the federal government play in supporting a stable, well-functioning housing finance system and what risks, if any, should the federal government bear in meeting its housing finance objectives?   

Commentary could address: level of government involvement and type of support provided; role of government agencies; role of private vs. public capital; role of any explicit government guarantees; role of direct subsidies and other fiscal support and mechanisms to convey such support; monitoring and management of risks including how to balance the retention and distribution of risk; incentives to encourage appropriate alignment of risk bearing in the private sector; mechanisms for dealing with episodes of market stress; and how to promote market discipline.

3.      Should the government approach differ across different segments of the market, and if so, how?   

Commentary could address: differentiation of approach based on mortgage size or other characteristics; rationale for integration or separation of functions related to the single-family and multi-family market; whether there should be an emphasis on supporting the production of subsidized multifamily housing; differentiation in mechanism to convey subsidies, if any.

4.      How should the current organization of the housing finance system be improved?

Commentary could address: what aspects should be preserved, changed, eliminated or added; regulatory considerations; optimal general organizational design and market structure; capital market functions; sources of funding; mortgage origination, distribution and servicing; the role of the existing government-sponsored enterprises; and the challenges of transitioning from the current system to a desired future system.

5.      How should the housing finance system support sound market practices?

Commentary could address underwriting standards; how best to balance risk and access; and extent to which housing finance systems that reference certain standards and mortgage products contribute to this objective.

6.      What is the best way for the housing finance system to help ensure consumers are protected from unfair, abusive or deceptive practices?

Commentary could address: level of consumer protections and limitation; supervising agencies; specific restrictions; and role of consumer education

7.      Do housing finance systems in other countries offer insights that can help inform US reform choices?

The American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance believes that any withdrawal of support for home ownership would be ill timed to say the least.Home equity is the single largest form of savings for most homeowners. Millions of moderate income homeowners pay off their mortgage over the course of their working career, and their freedom from mortgage payments in retirement enables them to maintain a comfortable lifestyle from their social security, savings, and pensions. With the latter two continuing to decline, we should reinforce our support for home ownership. Without that home equity, many future retirees who worked hard and productively throughout their careers will find their incomes below the income poverty line in retirement, and in need of federal safety net support, at great cost to taxpayers.

Home ownership benefits society in other ways as well. It contributes substantially to maintaining a healthy middle class and in doing so contributes to social stability. This is not to criticize efforts to support rental housing, but a country with a huge number of renters and a small number of rich investors is characteristic of third world nations. Going forward, the Obama Administration should take care that its housing policy does not push the U.S. in that direction by reducing incentives for people to own a home to providing even more taxpayer subsidies to multihousing investors in order to make renting more attractive than home ownership.

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Please take the time to contact your legislators and express your views on pending policy issues covered in this month’s Home Base. It's easy - you can reach your legislators by email in a couple of mouse clicks, and you can use the content in Home Base and elsewhere on our website to help you develop your message.

To look up the phone number, email, and/or postal address of your U.S. Representative or your two U.S. Senators, (or your state representative or state senator) click here. You can also look up which legislators represent your zip code if you don’t recall their names.

A personal meeting is a particularly effective way to get their attention and reinforce your message. Many legislators are also happy to meet personally with their constituents when they are back home on weekends or when Congress is not in session. This summer Congress will be in recess August 9 - September 12.
Please consider also requesting a follow up face-to-face meeting in their home state or home district offices near you when you contact their Washington DC offices on policy issues. 

Is there a policy issue that is particularly important to you which significantly impacts homeowners or home ownership? Any member may propose a position on a policy issue, so please check the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance's 2010 Issue Guide. If it isn't on the list, we invite you to send us an email and tell us why you think the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance should take a position and work on it.

Copyright 2010, American Homeowners Foundation and the American Homeowners Grassroots Alliance.